Momentum, days to weeks. Current ideas from the Week of October 19, 2026 letter.
Prices as of October 16, 2026 close
ConocoPhillips (COP)
High conviction
$146.51 · Oct 16 close
One of the largest U.S. independent oil and gas producers, with big Permian, Alaska and LNG assets.
Setup
New 3-month closing high at $146.51 (+9.3% on the week, +26.7% over 3 months), well above its 20-day average (~$131.64). Energy was a top S&P 500 sector this week as Brent hit $110 for the first time since May.
Levels
Entry $142-147Stop $135 (below this week's low)Target $158
Catalyst
Oil headlines from Hormuz and Russia/Ukraine; Q3 results Nov 5.
Risk
Very extended; a de-escalation headline could knock crude and the stock lower fast.
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1 From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Aerospace and defense giant behind Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace.
Setup
Jumped 3.7% Friday to $193.92 on about 1.8x normal volume, reclaiming its 20-day average (~$187). Fresh Navy and Pentagon awards (SM-6 deal worth up to $24.4B, SM-3 up to $6.3B) plus Middle East tensions are pulling money into defense.
Levels
Entry $189-195Stop $180.50Targets $200 (50-day average), then $210
Catalyst
Q3 earnings Tue, Oct 20 before the open.
Risk
Earnings next week is a coin flip; the stock is still below its 50-day average.
Reward / risk to T1 0.7 : 1 From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
The world's largest retailer, with a fast-growing e-commerce and advertising business.
Setup
Up 6.7% on the week and 11.3% over a month to $118.81, above its 20- and 50-day averages, as money rotates from tech into defensive leaders. It is pressing against its 3-month high of $121.38.
Levels
Entry $116-120, or add on a close above $121.38Stop $110.90Targets $128, then $134 (record close)
Catalyst
Defensive rotation while tech is under pressure.
Risk
If tech bounces hard, defensive leaders can lag.
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1 From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Global prestige beauty company (Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer) in the middle of a turnaround.
Setup
Up 25% over 3 months to $104.54 after a fiscal Q4 beat (organic sales +5%). Barclays upgraded it to Overweight ($108 target) and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $112.
Levels
Entry $100-105Stop $95.90Target $112
Catalyst
Analyst upgrades; fiscal Q1 results Nov 2.
Risk
China and travel-retail demand is still uneven; it pulled back 2.5% Friday from a 3-month high.
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1 From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
The largest U.S. health insurer (UnitedHealthcare) plus the Optum health-services and pharmacy business.
Setup
Beat Q3 estimates ($4.69 adjusted EPS vs about $4.13 expected) and raised its 2026 outlook to at least $20.50. The stock closed at $401.43, back above its 50-day average (~$387), on about 2x normal volume this week.