Long-Term Picks — Griffin Research Group

Medium conviction

$771.19 · Oct 16 close

Maker of the FICO credit score and decisioning/fraud software used by most U.S. lenders.

Thesis: Beaten down: about 39% lower over 3 months, after regulators let lenders use VantageScore on equal terms. Early signs the moat holds: United Wholesale Mortgage will keep pulling FICO on every broker loan. A 15% job cut should protect margins. Shares rebounded 15.5% this week.
Catalyst: Lender adoption news; fiscal Q4 results in early-to-mid November.
Risk: Further mortgage share loss to VantageScore; over $5B of debt.

Low conviction

$37.13 · Oct 16 close

The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel brand.

Thesis: Deep-value turnaround. It hit a 13-year low after revenue fell 4%, and it has a $2.5B cost plan. If the brand stabilizes, today's price could look cheap in 2-3 years. This is a patient, speculative idea, not a quick trade.
Catalyst: Investor Day Nov 17.
Risk: Analyst targets ($24-33) sit below the price; the cost savings mostly land in 2029-30.

High conviction

$412.61 · Oct 16 close

The world's largest contract chipmaker; it builds the leading-edge chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and others.

Thesis: Quality compounder on sale. Q3 revenue rose 50.9% year over year with a 66.4% gross margin, and Q4 guidance ($52.3-54.3B) points higher. Yet the shares are down about 15% from the $487.47 high in the AI sell-off.
Catalyst: AI chip demand and TSMC's monthly sales reports.
Risk: AI spending pullback, Taiwan geopolitics.

Medium conviction

$529.05 · Oct 16 close

Software and cloud leader (Azure, Office 365, Windows), and a major AI platform.

Thesis: Durable compounder with recurring revenue and huge cash flow; buy on weakness during the AI-trade wobble. It is about 4% below its recent $551 high.
Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 earnings Oct 28 (Azure growth, AI revenue, capex).
Risk: Fiscal 2026 capex was about $175B and rising; investors may punish more spending.

Medium conviction

$413.16 · Oct 16 close

A leading Medicare Advantage insurer serving seniors.

Thesis: Re-rate story. 95% of members will be in 4-star-or-better plans for 2027, up from 20% for 2026, which Evercore estimates could bring about $4.8B in 2028 bonus payments. The stock is about 9% off its $456.50 high.
Catalyst: Q3 results Nov 6; 2027 enrollment and pricing.
Risk: Already priced richly (about 25x forward earnings by one estimate); Medicare policy risk.